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If human-equivalent AI is possible, this is a huge, huge deal. It would basically mean that you could turn inanimate matter into intelligence. Say that it requires about 500 teraflops (Tflops), roughly equivalent to one of the fastest supercomputers today, to run a human-equivalent AI program.
A really fast supercomputer costs about $100 million. As you may know, the cost of computing power tends to fall exponentially with time. Even if this doesn’t continue forever, it seems like it will continue until 2020 or so at the very least.
Around 2020, 2025, 2030, or thereabouts, it seems reasonable to say that a 500 Tflop computer would cost in the ballpark of $100,000, if not less. If such a computer were sufficient to run a human-level AI, it would make sense for your random company to buy these computers and run them alongside conventional staff. They would be substantially cheaper. After all, these AIs could think all day and night without food, and their cognitive architectures could be boosted by direct access to number-crunching capabilities. They could share thoughts in a common format, instantaneously.
A really fast supercomputer costs about $100 million. As you may know, the cost of computing power tends to fall exponentially with time. Even if this doesn’t continue forever, it seems like it will continue until 2020 or so at the very least.
Around 2020, 2025, 2030, or thereabouts, it seems reasonable to say that a 500 Tflop computer would cost in the ballpark of $100,000, if not less. If such a computer were sufficient to run a human-level AI, it would make sense for your random company to buy these computers and run them alongside conventional staff. They would be substantially cheaper. After all, these AIs could think all day and night without food, and their cognitive architectures could be boosted by direct access to number-crunching capabilities. They could share thoughts in a common format, instantaneously.
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